"Conventional VAR estimation and forecasting ignores the fact that economic data are often subject to revision many months or years after their initial release. This paper shows how VAR analysis can be modified to account for such revisions. The proposed approach assumes that government...

Using state-space modeling, we extract information from surveys of long-term inflation expectations and multiple quarterly inflation series to undertake a real-time decomposition of quarterly headline PCE and GDP-deflator inflation rates into a common long-term trend, common cyclical component,...

In this paper, we revisit the issue of excess sensitivity of consumption to income and address the weak instrument problem that is well documented in this literature. Using quarterly data for the U.S. economy, we first highlight the weak instrument problem by showing that the use of conventional...

Using real-time data from 1985:Q1-2017:Q3 and simple VAR models, we show that there is substantial pay-off in combining credit supply indicators with house prices for forecasting real economic activity in the U.S. Consistent with the findings in the literature, we show that the forecasts from a...