This paper studies the performance of alternative prediction models for conflict. The analysis contrasts the performance of conventional approaches based on predicted probabilities generated by binary response regressions and random forests with two unconventional classification algorithms. The...

This paper studies the performance of alternative prediction models for conflict. The analysis contrasts the performance of conventional approaches based on predicted probabilities generated by binary response regressions and random forests with two unconventional classification algorithms. The...

In 1975, a consortium sponsored by the Argentine government tried to purchase the stock of the Britishowned Falkland Islands Company, a monopoly that owned 43 percent of the land in the Falklands, employed 51 percent of the labor force, had a monopoly on all wool exports, and operated the...

Option pricing and allocation tools in portfolio construction should be prospective - based on assumptions about how prices will change in the future. Most capital market assumptions used in portfolio construction are based on retrospective analysis, boiling down to simple calculations of...

This paper defines a Beaufort Predictability Index, analogous to the Beaufort Wind Force Scale, to assist analysts in sizing up statistical prediction problems; for background we outline the career of Francis Beaufort and the genesis of his Wind Force Scale. We then describe the various versions...