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This dissertation comprises three distinct economic stduies. The first deals with the origin of business cycle fluctuations and the other two with the measurement of financial constraints and the identification of the respective treatment effect.
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We analyze U.S. stock return predictability using a measure of credit standards (Standards) derived from the Federal Reserve Board's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. Standards is a strong predictor of stock returns at a business cycle frequency, especially in the...
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. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the domestic country should be reflected in the expected export …Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, but the literature on import forecasting is still in its … infancy. We introduce the first leading indicator especially constructed for total import growth, the so-called Import Climate …
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