This paper develops a set of leading indicators of industrial production growth and consumer price inflation for the period 2001-2010. The choice of indicators is based on pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise implemented by Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. We find that asset prices...

In this paper, we study the evolution of inflation expectations for two key emerging economies, Brazil and Turkey, using a reduced form model in a state-space framework, where the level of inflation is modeled explicitly. We match the survey-based inflation expectations and inflation targets set...

In this paper, we develop a Twitter-based measure of public sentiment that is useful for measuring the economic policy uncertainty that impacts individual decisions for Turkey. We extract a Twitter-based Economic Policy Uncertainty (TEPU) Index based on a selected set of Twitter user accounts...

In this paper, we propose a method for jointly estimating indexes of economic and financial conditions by exploiting the intertemporal link between their cyclical behavior. This method combines a dynamic factor model for the joint modeling of economic and financial variables with mixed...

The study analyzes the family of regime switching GARCH neural network models, which allow the generalization of MS type RS-GARCH models to MS-GARCH-NN models by incorparating with neural network architectures with different dynamics and forecasting capabilities both in addition to the family of...

The Turkish version of this paper can be found at: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2222071" http://ssrn.com/abstract=2222071The study aims to investigate linear GARCH, fractionally integrated FI-GARCH and Asymmetric Power APGARCH models and their nonlinear counterparts based on Support Vector...

The English version of this paper can be found at: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2227747" http://ssrn.com/abstract=2227747Çalışma, temel GARCH modelinin Destek Vektör Makinesi ve Yapay Sinir Ağları ile iyileştirilmiş modellerin incelenerek GARCH modelinin tahmin performansının...