We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard...

We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard...

One of the strongest leading indicators of economic activity is the number of people who file for unemployment benefits. Macroeconomists Robert Gordon and James Hamilton have recently examined the historical evidence. According to Hamilton's summary: "... in each of the last six recessions, the...

In this work the precision and stability of the forecasts of Chile's unemployment rates are analyzed. Said models were obtained by a family of SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models, between February 1986 and February 2010. The SARIMA projections are compared with the...

The identification of the business cycle turn points is a challenging task. In this context, the evolution of new data typologies as internet searches data strongly impacted the construction of approaches practical to forecast macroeconomic variables. This work emphasizes the significance of...