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We compute a stochastic household forecast for the Netherlands by the random share method. Time series of shares of … persons in nine household positions, broken down by sex and five-year age group for the years 1996-2010 are modelled by means … of time indices for each household position for men and women. We model these time indices as a Random Walk with Drift …
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appropriate quantification of household inflation expectations in the Swiss Consumer Survey, where answers are qualitative in … expectations since the mid-1990s. Furthermore, we discuss some of the key features of Swiss household inflation expectations, i …
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A fundamental assumption of expected utility models is that agents make predictions by formulating rational expectations. Building on this assumption, the literature has addressed to what extent rational choice or behaviorally informed utility models best describe intertemporal substitution of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013251591
We propose a general simulation-based procedure for estimating the quality of approximate policies in heterogeneous-agent equilibrium models, which allows verification that such approximate solutions describe a near-rational equilibrium. Our procedure endows agents with superior knowledge of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048664
The paper derives analytical transitions probabilities following an exogenous shock to the deterministic component in the conditional logit model. The solution draws on the postestimation distribution of the model's stochastic component, identified on the basis of a direct utility maximization...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319505
This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German population and labour supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, the population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. The labour force participation rates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011586534
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