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Forecasting Adoption of Ultra-Low-Emission Vehicles Using the GHK Simulator and Bayes Estimates of a Multinomial Probit Model

Daziano, Ricardo; Achtnicht, Martin - 2014

In this paper we use Bayes estimates of a multinomial probit model with fully flexible substitution patterns to forecast consumer response to ultra-low-emission vehicles. In this empirical application of the probit Gibbs sampler, we use stated-preference data on vehicle choice from a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014172337

Study of Discrete Choice Models and Artificial Intelligence Approaches in the Prediction of Economic Crises

Giovanis, Eleftherios - 2011

We examine various and different approaches for the prediction of economic crisis periods of US economy. We examine the traditional econometric discrete choice Logit and Probit models then a feed-forward neural network (FFNN) model and finally we apply an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126950

An Early Warning System to Predict the House Price Bubbles

Dreger, Christian; Kholodilin, Konstantin A. - 2011

In this paper, we construct the country-specific chronologies of the house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q1 - 2010:Q2. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of a fundamental and a filter approaches. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014042996

Real exchange rates : measurement and implications for predicting US external imbalances

Marquez, Jaime R. - 1992

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000840919

Predicting external imbalances for the United States and Japan

Cline, William R. - 1995

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000547311

Predicting real exchange rates from real interest rate differentials and net foreign asset stocks: evidence for the mark/dollar parity

Meier, Carsten-Patrick - 1999

When nontraded goods prices are accounted for consistently and genuine stock data on bilateral foreign asset holdings is employed, a modified sticky-price exchange rate model by far outperforms the benchmark random walk-model in empirically forecasting the D-mark/dollar parity out of sample....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265449

Forecasting long memory time series under a break in persistence

Heinen, Florian; Sibbertsen, Philipp; Kruse, Robinson - 2009

We consider the problem of forecasting time series with long memory when the memory parameter is subject to a structural break. By means of a large-scale Monte Carlo study we show that ignoring such a change in persistence leads to substantially reduced forecasting precision. The strength of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003899580

Should we trust in leading indicators? : evidence from the recent recession

Heinisch, Katja; Scheufele, Rolf - 2010

The paper analyzes leading indicators for GDP and industrial production in Germany. We focus on the performance of … single and pooled leading indicators during the pre-crisis and crisis period using various weighting schemes. Pairwise and … many leading indicator models increased. At short horizons, survey indicators perform best, while at longer horizons …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003961067

How costly is it to ignore breaks when forecasting the direction of a time series?

Timmermann, Allan; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2003

Empirical evidence suggests that many macroeconomic and financial time series are subject to occasional structural breaks. In this paper we present analytical results quantifying the effects of such breaks on the correlation between the forecast and the realization and on the ability to forecast...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506213

Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks

Timmermann, Allan; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2003

Autoregressive models are used routinely in forecasting and often lead to better performance than more complicated models. However, empirical evidence is also suggesting that the autoregressive representations of many macroeconomic and financial time series are likely to be subject to structural...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011508088