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Predicting Authoritarian Crackdowns : A Machine Learning Approach
Chan, Julian TszKin - 2020
We have developed a quantitative indicator to predict if and when a series of protests in China, such as the one that began in Hong Kong in 2019, will be met with a Tiananmen-like crackdown. The indicator takes as input protest-related articles published in the People's Daily—the official...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840487
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Predicting Local Violence
Blair, Robert; Blattman, Christopher; Hartman, Alexandra - 2017
economic variables typically did not. We illustrate how forecasting can be widely more applied to micro-level conflict data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014142292
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Predicting Conflict Events in Africa at Subnational Level
van Weezel, Stijn - 2017
are commonly linked to conflict incidence. A logit model is fitted to sub-national data for Africa at grid-cell level … predictor of future conflict is current conflict incidence in the grid-cell and neighbouring cells. Additionally, the infant … conflict dynamics. Finally, the presented results are based on a relatively simple regression model commonly used in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012949777
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Predicting cannabis cultivation on national forests using a rational choice framework
Koch, Frank H.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Donovan, Geoffrey H. - In: Ecological economics : the transdisciplinary journal of … 129 (2016), pp. 161-171
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011630495
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Mispricing Narratives after Social Unrest
Ba, Bocar A.; Ndiaye, Abdoulaye; Rivera, Roman; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We study how negative sentiment around an industry impacts beliefs and behaviors, focusing on demands for racial justice after the murder of George Floyd and the salience of the "defund the police" movement. We assess stakeholder beliefs on the impact of protests on the stock prices of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635693
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Global Civil Unrest : Contagion, Self-Organization, and Prediction
Braha, Dan - 2012
Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion in the context of modeling and identification of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014164119
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El Efecto Globo : identificación de regiones propensas a la producción de coca
Moreno Pabón, Juan Sebastián - 2018 - Edición especial, CESED
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011974780
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Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It
Heller, Sara B.; Jakubowski, Benjamin; Jelveh, Zubin; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
predictions to target law enforcement. But using them to target social services could have enormous preventive benefits …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334389
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Algorithms, Human Decision-Making and Predictive Policing
Phillips, Peter J.; Pohl, Gabriela - 2021
Given their technical sophistication, it is easy to overlook the human choices that underpin predictive policing algorithms and, importantly, the basic structures of decision theory that it embeds. To make a problem amenable to algorithmic computation, the problem must be transformed, often...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322251
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Likelihood Based Inference and Prediction in Spatio-Temporal Panel Count Models for Urban Crimes
Liesenfeld, Roman; Richard, Jean-Francois; Vogler, Jan - 2015
compute several other statistics of interest for law enforcement such as elasticities (idiosyncratic, total, short-term as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014135197