This paper uses bilateral data on 420 merchandise trade flows between 21 industrial countries are used to estimate standard trade equations. The data set of over 11,000 observations allows the underlying elasticities to be estimated with considerable precision. Remarkably, a single specification...

We examine the quantitative predictions of heterogeneous firm models à la Melitz (2003) in the context of the Canada - US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) of 1989. We compute predicted increases in trade flows and measured productivity across a range of standard models and compare them to the...

We examine the quantitative predictions of heterogeneous firm models à la Melitz (2003) in the context of the Canada - US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) of 1989. We compute predicted increases in trade flows and measured productivity across a range of standard models and compare them to the...

We develop a framework to nowcast (and forecast) economic variables with machine learning techniques. We explain how machine learning methods can address common shortcomings of traditional OLS-based models and use several machine learning models to predict real output growth with lower forecast...

Governments across the globe are progressively becoming aware of the increasing significance of international migration and remittances on the international development agenda. Remittances are perceived as one of the key benefits that migration bring to originating countries. Zimbabweans abroad...

In this paper we develop an analytically solvable and structurally estimable economic geography model and apply it to predict migration flows for the period following the CEE’s integration with the EU. The main innovation of our approach is that it endogenises both explanatory variables and...

This study evaluates the in-sample and out-of-sample RMB exchange rate forecasting with a predictor of CNH-CNY pricing differential. Despite significant evidence of in-sample fit of conditional models at short horizons, we find that RMB exchange rate forecasts based on CNH-CNY spreads do not...