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Spatial Panel Count Data : Modeling and Forecasting of Urban Crimes

Glaser, Stephanie; Jung, Robert; Schweikert, Karsten - 2021

The steadily growing access to high-quality spatio-temporal crime count data with a high level of spatial detail allows … to uncover interesting relationships between crime types within and between small regional units. Data coherent … methods of moments. The models’ usefulness is demonstrated in a forecasting exercise of monthly crime counts at census tract …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013238764

Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It

Heller, Sara B.; Jakubowski, Benjamin; Jelveh, Zubin; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

This paper shows that shootings are predictable enough to be preventable. Using arrest and victimization records for almost 644,000 people from the Chicago Police Department, we train a machine learning model to predict the risk of being shot in the next 18 months. We address central concerns...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334389

Likelihood Based Inference and Prediction in Spatio-Temporal Panel Count Models for Urban Crimes

Liesenfeld, Roman; Richard, Jean-Francois; Vogler, Jan - 2015

analyze monthly severe crimes at the census tract level in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Our data set combines Uniform Crime … matrices. Our estimation results confirm socio-economic explanations for crime and, foremost, the broken-windows hypothesis …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014135197

Predicting Local Violence

Blair, Robert; Blattman, Christopher; Hartman, Alexandra - 2017

This paper tests the feasibility of local-level violence forecasting. We apply standard prediction models to new data from 242 Liberian communities to investigate whether it is to possible to predict outbreaks of local violence with sensitivity and accuracy, even with limited data. We first...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014142292

Space-Time Autoregressive Models and Forecasting National, Regional and State Crime Rates

Shoesmith, Gary - 2014

property crime rates. The disaggregate state (Florida) violent crime model includes murder, rape, robbery, and assault and the … property crime model, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. In experimental forecasts, ST-AR RMSEs are compared to those … future crime rates as either the most recent rate or according to the most recent change in rates. The ST-AR model is of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014146023

Do psychopathic traits predict criminal activity?

Mancino, M. Antonella; Attia, Tarek - In: Journal of applied economics 25 (2022) 1, pp. 1260-1293

predictor of crime. We investigate the effect of psychopathy on crime using a unique panel dataset of young offenders, which … find that psychopathy is an important predictor of crime. We show that the effect is two times larger (and closer to usual … comprehensive data on individual heterogeneity to isolate the effect of psychopathy on crime from the effect of confounding factors …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247678

Does Native Country Turmoil Predict Immigrant Workers’ Honesty in Markets?

Shohfi, Thomas; White, Roger M. - 2022

Does the onset of violent turmoil in an immigrant’s country of origin affect their honesty in economic exchange? We test this question using Egyptian cab drivers in NYC. Native country turmoil could increase demand for remittances or spur anger or anxiety, which could boost cheating, as both...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013290027