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mentioned, and various extensions of the standard GARCH model are highlighted. This includes the Exponential GARCH model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281357
This paper provides empirical evidence that combinations of option implied and time series volatility forecasts that are conditional on current information are statistically superior to individual models, unconditional combinations, and hybrid forecasts. Superior forecasting performance is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322599
We study the asymptotic properties of the Adaptive LASSO (adaLASSO) in sparse, high-dimensional, linear time-series models. We assume that both the number of covariates in the model and the number of candidate variables can increase with the sample size (polynomially or geometrically). In other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010505038
Forecasting-volatility models typically rely on either daily or high frequency (HF) data and the choice between these two categories is not obvious. In particular, the latter allows to treat volatility as observable but they suffer of many limitations. HF data feature microstructure problem,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011730304
for main indices from stock exchanges was conducted. The VaR forecasts from GARCH(1,1), GARCH-t(1,1), GARCH-st(1,1), QML-GARCH … volatility trend. However, GARCH-st (1,1) and QML-GARCH(1,1) were found to be the most robust models in the different volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011967246
validate this result. The last twenty eight days out-of-sample forecast adjudged Power-GARCH (1, 1, 1) in student's t error …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489480
Volatility (SV) and Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models which are both extended to include … outperforms the GARCH model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326944
, such as GARCH models, are investigated, to determine if they are more appropriate for predicting future return volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767118
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191413
of ARCH effect has been tried to predict with conditional variance models such as ARCH (1), ARCH (2), ARCH (3), GARCH (1 …,1), GARCH (1,2), GARCH (1,3), GARCH (2,1), GARCH (2,2), EGARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,2). While the obtained findings indicate that … the best model is in the direction of GARCH (1,1) according to Akaike info criterion, it was found that GARCH (1,1) model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014382180