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We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the … forecasting performance of our proposed model relative to most of the existing alternative specifications. While most of the … useful for forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286274
-dimensional surfaces. We propose to extend their use to finance and, in particular, to forecasting yield curves. We present the results of … Kriging method based on the anisotropic variogram. Furthermore, a comparison with other recent methods for forecasting yield … competitive with the other forecasting models considered. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411696
We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the … forecasting performance of our proposed model relative to most of the existing alternative specifications. While most of the … and useful for forecasting. -- Bayesian methods ; Forecasting ; Term structure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003990415
VARs are a popular tool for forecasting and structural analysis, but ill-suited to handle occasionally binding …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014320745
The evolution of the yields of different maturities is related and can be described by a reduced number of commom latent factors. Multifactor interest rate models of the finance literature, common factor models of the time series literature and others use this property. Each model has advantages...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012053243
This paper uses an estimated open economy DSGE model to examine if constant interest forecasts one and two years ahead can be regarded as modest policy interventions during the period 1993Q4-2002Q4. An intervention is here defined to be modest if it does not trigger the agents to revise their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011583556
shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically linked to the recessions in the post-WWII data. In forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012886359
Asset prices are a valuable source of information about financial market participants.expectations about key macroeconomic variables. However, the presence of time-varying risk premia requires an adjustment of market prices to obtain the market’s rational assessment of future price and policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622575
forecasting ability of the spread. Klassifikation: …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009768273
quite successful in forecasting monthly changes in commodity prices, but that success diminished in the period following …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012798924