inclusion of autocorrelation effects in the model and the simulation of future uncertainty. The model predicts that, in the …

indices of mortality and fertility rates. These models are then used in the simulation of future vital rates to obtain age …

identify economic variables that might help improve the OECD's forecasts for Germany's consumption and GDP growth. …Recent theoretical advances in consumption theory suggest that there may exist predictable consumption surges which, if …

We study the long-run interaction between Germany’s economic growth trajectory and demographic aging. Using a … comprehensive dataset, we leverage the classical production function approach to estimate potential output growth between 1970 and …’s potential output growth up to 2070 will be low if current economic trends persist. In particular, the diminishing labor volume …

, especially for the future path of private consumption. Although they receive high attention in the media, their forecasting power …

transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX … repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life … evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in …