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This paper examines the methods used by the Bank of Japan for the estimation of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991364
There is a large literature evaluating the forecasts of the Federal Reserve by testing their rationality and measuring the size of their forecast errors. There is also a substantial literature and debate on the impact of the Fed's monetary policy on the economy. We know little, however about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012986181
This paper focuses on modelling and forecasting inflation in India using an augmented Phillips curve framework. Both … demand and supply factors are seen as drivers of inflation. Demand conditions are found to have a stronger impact on non …-food manufactured products inflation (NFMP) vis-a-vis headline WPI inflation; moreover, NFMP is found to be more persistent than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102883
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010394237
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
central bank, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), has influenced private sector expectations of inflation, and whether the degree of …-term inflation target to help anchor expectations. This paper aims to document how much the release of the forecasts of one major … influence depends to any degree on the adoption of an inflation target (IT). Consistent with earlier studies, we find the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012982425
This paper provides a general strategy for analyzing monetary policy in real time which accounts for data uncertainty without explicitly modelling the revision process. The strategy makes use of all the data available from a real-time data matrix and averages model estimates across all data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274753
This paper provides a general strategy for analyzing monetary policy in real time which accounts for data uncertainty without explicitly modelling the revision process. The strategy makes use of all the data available from a real-time data matrix and averages model estimates across all data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009011352
is well described by rolling window linear detrending, while Greenbook inflation forecasts can be closely replicated … using Bayesian model averaging over Autoregressive Distributed Lag models in inflation and the GDP growth rate. German and U ….S. Taylor rules are characterized by inflation coefficients increasing with the forecast horizon and a positive output gap …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134659
The Taylor rule has become the dominant model for academic evaluation of out-of-sample exchange rate predictability. Two versions of the Taylor rule model are the Taylor rule fundamentals model, where the variables that enter the Taylor rule are used to forecast exchange rate changes, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904307