Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected … just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals …

policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of … re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were …

the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of …

the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of … nach Eintritt in die Arbeitslosigkeit. Erstens wurden Arbeitslose kurz nach Beginn der Arbeitslosigkeit nach ihrer …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country fixed effects are added to panel … estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries - Austria; Belgium … predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months in advance based on individuals' fears of unemployment, their perceptions …

Predictions of the individual unemployment duration will allow to distribute target support while searching for a job … more effectively. The paper uses survival models to predict the unemployment duration based on data from Russian employment …

state-level initial unemployment insurance claims, changes in the unemployment rate, and changes in private employment. The …

In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We … propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises … information to predict domestic unemployment rates, at least for these last seven countries …

monetary policy. It covers several major macro-economic quantities, including unemployment rate, GDP, and weekly payrolls in … natural rate of unemployment and GDP growth comes out of the model naturally. An optimization framework is proposed to … first-order analytic solution is derived. We find that FED's interest rate policy has leaned heavily on the unemployment …

This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich … unemployed. Applying our prediction algorithm over the unemployment spell, we show that dynamic selection into LTU explains at …. Finally, we evaluate the implications of our findings for the value of targeting unemployment policies and how these change …