This paper implements recursive techniques to estimate the equilibrium level of M2 velocity and to forecast inflation …-time forecasts of inflation and evaluate the performance of the forecasts obtained from the alternative models. We find that while a … P* model assuming a constant equilibrium velocity does not provide accurate inflation forecasts in the 1990s, a model …

In general, central banks are concerned with keeping the inflation rate stable while also sustaining output close to an … efficient level. Under "inflation targeting", forecasts of the evolution of the general price level are an essential input for … policy decisions and these are usually released in quarterly "Inflation Reports". The costs and benefits of transparency in …

This paper investigates the performance of inflation indicators for predicting the probability of inflation falling … the moving target range that future inflation will be below most recently observed inflation. This issue is motivated by … the gradual reduction in the rate of inflation by monetary control. When the inflation target range is zero to the average …

Managing inflation is vital for a stable economy, but forecasting remains challenging. ML methods, like neural networks …, have shown promise in forecasting inflation and other macroeconomic variables. In this paper, I propose DPCNet, a deep … multi-task learning model, to jointly forecast inflation and unemployment. DPCNet incorporates economic structure and memory …

fluctuations. Shifts in perceived uncertainty can also affect real activity and inflation through a confidence channel, as they …