We consider forecasting a single time series using high-dimensional predictors in the presence of a possible nonlinear forecast function. The sufficient forecasting (Fan et al., 2016) used sliced inverse regression to estimate lower-dimensional sufficient indices for non-parametric forecasting...

Much of the trading activity in Equity markets is directed to brokerage houses. In exchange they provide so-called quot;soft dollarsquot; which basically are amounts spent in quot;researchquot; for identifying profitable trading opportunities. Soft dollars represent about USD 1 out of every USD...

We consider forecasting a single time series when there is a large number of predictors and a possible nonlinear effect. The dimensionality was first reduced via a high-dimensional factor model implemented by the principal component analysis. Using the extracted factors, we develop a link-free...

In the past year, we have witnessed that the U.S. inflation rate hit the highest peak in over 40 years and is still close to its multi-decade high now. The overall change in consumer prices has a significant impact on the nation's economic activity, product manufacturing, consumer behavior, and...

Providing a more accurate covariance matrix forecast can substantially improve the performance of optimized portfolios. Using out-of-sample tests, in this paper, we evaluate alternative covariance matrix forecasting methods by looking at (1) their forecast accuracy, (2) their ability to track...

This research explores how one may predict the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a country using a technique known as multiple linear regression (MLR). Specifically, we explore whether other macroeconomic variables such as population, interest rates, unemployment rates, amongst others, can be used...

Time-varying parameter (TVP) models have the potential to be over-parameterized, particularly when the number of variables in the model is large. Global-local priors are increasingly used to induce shrinkage in such models. But the estimates produced by these priors can still have appreciable...

Time-varying parameter (TVP) models have the potential to be over-parameterized, particularly when the number of variables in the model is large. Global-local priors are increasingly used to induce shrinkage in such models. But the estimates produced by these priors can still have appreciable...

We extend the double-well potential process to a three-parameter version in order to model intraday price dynamics, with a focus on the intraday momentum and reversal. The proposed process has a parsimonious form of three parameters controlling momentum, reversal, and volatility respectively. By...

This paper argues that forecast estimators should minimise the loss function in a statistical, rather than deterministic, way. We introduce two new elements into the classical econometric analysis: a subjective guess on the variable to be forecasted and a probability reflecting the confidence...