In this paper we estimate and forecast with a small-scale DSGE model of the Euro area and the United States characterized by diverging interest-rate rules using quarterly data from 1996Q2 to 2011Q2. These diverging rules reflect the differing mandates of the ECB and the Fed, respectively. Due to...

Die vorliegende Dissertation mit dem Titel Monetary DSGE Models of Two Countries: Set-Up, Estimation, and Forecasting Performance beinhaltet neben einem einleitenden noch drei weitere Kapitel. In Kapitel 2 entwickeln wir ein Zwei-Länder-DSGE-Modell und untersuchen die Auswirkungen von...

Many countries have implemented social programmes providing long-term financial or in-kind entitlements. These programmes often focus on specific age-groups and consequently their expenditure streams are subject to demographic change. Given the strains already existing on public budgets,...

This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German population and labour supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, the population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. The labour force participation rates...

The paper deals with a summary of findings in the area of tax forecasts. It describes the basic methodology for predicting tax revenues, both in terms of the macroeconomic approach and from a microeconomic perspective. The microeconomic approach used microsimulation methods with methods based on...