The prediction of future mortality improvements is of substantial importance for areas such as population projection …, government welfare policies, pension planning and annuity pricing. The Lee-Carter model is one of the widely applied mortality … models proposed to capture and predict the trend in mortality reductions. However, some studies have identified the presence …

In this paper, we propose a simple dynamic mortality model to ft and forecast mortality rates for measuring longevity … and mortality risks. This proposal is based on a methodology for modelling interest rates, which assumes that changes in … given maturity. Similarly, we assume that changes in mortality rates depend linearly on changes in a specifc mortality rate …