This paper seeks to enhance forecast accuracy by combining three individual forecasting models. These models include: the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA), the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic model (GARCH), and the Census X11 model. Applied to the...

We propose a novel method to forecast corporate earnings, which combines the accuracy of analysts' forecasts with the unbiasedness of a cross-sectional model. We build on recent insights from the earnings forecasts literature to improve analysts' forecasts in two ways: reducing their...

We examine the relationship between pre-grant patent disclosure and analyst forecast accuracy. We take advantage of the passage of the American Inventor's Protection Act (1999) that mandates public disclosure of all the information in patent application documents within 18-months after initial...

Accurate Value at Risk (VaR) estimations are crucial for the robustness and stability of a financial system. Even though significant advances have been made in the field of risk modelling, many crises have emerged during the same period, and an explanation for this is that the advanced models...

This paper examines the relationship between ownership structure, analyst coverage, and forecast error for a sample of 160 companies listed on the Swiss Exchange for the period 2003-2013. A distinction is made between family firms, widely held firms, and firms owned by another blockholder. I...

Over the past 12 years, financial analysts across the world have been optimistically wrong with their 12-month earnings forecasts by 25.3%. This study may be the first of its kind to assess analyst earnings forecast accuracy at all listed companies across the globe, covering 70 countries. A...

Using a random sample of 60% of our cross-sectional data on U.S. stocks from 1964 to 2012, we trained four machine learning algorithms to forecast debt paydown over a one-year horizon. An evaluation of these candidate models on half of the hold-out sample (20% of the original dataset) showed...

This paper aims to test the accuracy of three well-known equity valuation models for the period 1990 to 2006. This was done to a sample of German listed firms which diverge from the US market in accounting standards, market maturity and corporate governance culture (bank-based in contrast to the...

This paper examines the initiation of analyst coverage of IPO firms in the presence of management forecasts. For a sample of 763 Australian IPOs from 1992 to 2004, we find firms that provide a management forecast in the prospectus are more likely to receive analyst coverage, after correcting for...

We examine the effect of the common ownership relation between brokerage houses and the firms covered by their analysts (referred to as co-owned brokerage houses, co-owned firms, and connected analysts, respectively) on analyst forecast performance. Common ownership can help the connected...