In this paper we test the predictive power of abnormal inventory growth to forecast retailers’ earnings. We demonstrate an inverted-U relationship between abnormal inventory growth and one-year ahead earnings per share for retailers. We find this relationship to be robust to different measures...

Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning. Of various methods ofestimating the standard deviation of demand, one that has been employed successfully in therecent literature uses dispersion among expertsacirc; forecasts. However, there has been limitedempirical...

Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined by us as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated using public financial and...