This study attempts to quantify whether a 4 percent withdrawal rate can still be considered as safe for U.S. retirees in recent years when earnings valuations have been at historical highs and the dividend yield has been at historical lows. We find that the traditional 4 percent withdrawal rule...

The purpose of this study was to compare and contrast the predictive validity of risk tolerance questionnaires. The tested questionnaires represented measures derived from economic and psychometric theory. It was determined that questionnaires based on economic theory had similar predictive...

We show that the net corporate payout yield predicts both the stock market index and house prices and that the log home rent-price ratio predicts both house prices and labor income growth. We incorporate the predictability in a rich life-cycle model of household decisions involving consumption...

In a calibrated consumption-portfolio model with stock, housing, and labor income predictability, we disentangle the welfare effects of skill and luck. Skilled investors are able to take advantage of all sources of predictability, whereas unskilled investors ignore predictability. Lucky...

This paper considers whether the inclusion of information contained in consumer credit reports might improve the predictive accuracy of forecasting models for consumption spending. To investigate the usefulness of aggregate consumer credit information in forecasting consumption spending, this...

People suffer financial distress when they face financial and non-financial difficulties from repaying their outstanding debts. This paper analyses the prevalence of financial distress, how this distress is related to consumer credit use, and whether financial distress can be predicted. We aim...

In a nationally-representative sample, we predict retirement savings using survey-based elicitations of exponential-growth bias (EGB) and present bias (PB). We find that EGB, the tendency to neglect compounding, and PB, the tendency to value the present over the future, are highly significant...

We develop a model to predict consumer default based on deep learning. We show that the model consistently outperforms standard credit scoring models, even though it uses the same data. Our model provides favorable credit risk assessment to young borrowers relative to standard credit scoring...

We use a large data set of over 12 million residential mortgages observed over time to investigate the loan default behavior in several European countries. We model the occurrence of default as a function of borrower characteristics, loan-specific variables, and a set of local economic...

Recent research has aimed to understand how people consider financial decisions because they have important consequences for well-being. Yet, existing research has largely failed to examine how attitudes and behaviors vary as a function of the specific financial product (e.g., debt type). We ask...