The Asian financial crisis broke out in Thailand in July 1997, and rapidly spread throughout the neighboring countries. An important question then arises? Is it possible to predict next financial crisis? If yes, then what are the predictors? The answer lies in combined usage of economic theory...

In this article we discuss bookmaker margins embedded in odds for "1X2" bets in the European football betting markets operated by bookmakers. Bookmaker margins are adjustments applied to fair odds, for the purpose of ensuring profits and compensation for risks undertaken, and to cover overall...

Re-sampling techniques and theoretically-motivated extraneous information are used to revisit Hummels and Levinsohn's (1995) analysis of the testable implication of the monopolistic competition trade theory for bilateral trade volumes. Confronting this implication with data from over...

In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their inflation sentiment. We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared by many components of the CPI basket. In a...

In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their inflation sentiment. We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared by many components of the CPI basket. In a...

Since the end of Great Recession, researchers have turned their attention to studies on economic recovery, and the speed of correction in the United States. While the economy is recovering, researchers have begun to expect the possibility of inflation in the future. A recent article from the...

Since the end of Great Recession, researchers have turned their attention to studies on economic recovery, and the speed of correction in the United States. While the economy is recovering, researchers have begun to expect the possibility of inflation in the future. A recent article from the...

Since the end of Great Recession, researchers have turned their attention to studies on economic recovery, and the speed of correction in the United States. While the economy is recovering, researchers have begun to expect the possibility of inflation in the future. A recent article from the...

We evaluate inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) of the Central Bank of Chile. Forecast errors for the period 2000-2008 show an excess of autocorrelation and a statistically significant bias at the end of the sample. We take advantage of the bias and...

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...