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an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, the paper shows that the proposed approach performs well as compared to other well …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011806537
Factor Forests (DFF) for macroeconomic forecasting, which synthesize the recent machine learning, dynamic factor model and … proposed in Zeileis, Hothorn and Hornik (2008). DFTs and DFFs are non-linear and state-dependent forecasting models, which … powerful tree-based machine learning ensembles conditional on the state of the business cycle. The out-of-sample forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012172506
We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900715
A practice that has become widespread and widely endorsed is that of evaluating forecasts of financial variability obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010332964
walk model suggests that the forecasting performance of the monetary model is superior. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009770376
We develop an econometric modelling framework to forecast commodity prices taking into account potentially different dynamics and linkages existing at different states of the world and using different performance measures to validate the predictions. We assess the extent to which the quality of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012415910
’ profitability forecasting, techniques, and most appropriate models to improve the correctness of predicting and acquiring more … forecasting. It conducts investigations for the relevant studies, using regression analysis, necessary tests, ascertains …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012501916
The Phillips curve, which posits a relationship between inflation and domestic economic activity, introduces a crucial trade-off between real and nominal objectives for the central bank. Atkeson and Ohanian (2001), among others, present evidence that forecasts of U.S. inflation from Phillips...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011609901
should be taken as a lower bound, results show a better WBM forecasting ability than the benchmark case and confirm the … show that the (unrealistic) use of revised data leads to a systematic overstatement of model forecasting performance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013079105
Building on the literature on regularization and dimension reduction methods, we have developed a quarterly forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060909