We show that house prices from Aberdeen in the UK improve in- and out-of-sample oil price forecasts. The improvements are of a similar magnitude to those attained using macroeconomic indicators. We explain these forecast improvements with the dominant role of the oil industry in Aberdeen. House...

I propose a new model, conditional quantile regression (CQR), that generates density forecasts consistent with a specific view of the future evolution of some variables. This addresses a shortcoming of existing quantile regression-based models, for example the at-risk framework popularised by...

Population forecasts are crucial for many social, political and economic decisions. Official population projections rely in general on deterministic models which use different scenarios for future vital rates to indicate uncertainty. However, this technique shows substantial weak points such as...

The demographic transition is a phenomenon affecting many industrialized societies. These economies are experiencing a decline in mortality alongside low fertility rates - a situation that puts social security systems under severe pressure. To implement appropriate reform measures, adequate...

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...

The paper presents a foresight analysis methodology and its empirical application in the context of housing market. This work was developed in the context of a wider research project, "Drivers Of housiNg demand in Portuguese Urban sysTem" - DONUT, which analyses the Portuguese housing market....

Purpose – We use a large and rich data set consisting of over 123,000 single-family houses sold in Switzerland between 2005 and 2017 to investigate the accuracy and volatility of different methods for estimating and updating hedonic valuation models.Design/methodology/approach – We apply six...

In the academic debate there is a broad consensus that house price fluctuations have a substantial impact on financial stability and real economic activity. Therefore, it is important to have timely information on actual and expected house price developments. The aim of this paper is to measure...

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both insample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

In this paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of the London Metal Exchange Index and of the six primary non-ferrous metals that are part of the index: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. The economic relationship hinges on the present-value...