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We propose a practical framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets, especially in how prices react to news. We show this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845884
This paper examines whether the outcome bias harms price efficiency in betting exchange markets. In soccer, the match outcome is an unreliable performance measure, as it underestimates the high level of randomness involved in the sport. If bettors overestimate the importance of past match...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012820013
This paper investigates whether the sentimental preferences of investors influence market efficiency. We use a betting exchange market environment to analyze the influence of sentimental bettors on market efficiency in 2,333 soccer matches played between 2006-2014 during the last three hours of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012209059
whether Google Trends provides significant forecasting improvements over models without search data. Second, we assess whether … a high-frequency variable (weekly Google Trends) is more useful for accurate forecasting than a low-frequency variable … arrivals, is useful for predicting the actual number of tourist arrivals. The MIDAS forecasting model that employs weekly …
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