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Lasso-type and heuristic strategies in model selection and forecasting
Savin, Ivan; Winker, Peter - 2012
Several approaches for subset recovery and improved forecasting accuracy have been proposed and studied. One way is to apply a regularization strategy and solve the model selection task as a continuous optimization problem. One of the most popular approaches in this research field is given by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291802
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Lasso-type and heuristic strategies in model selection and forecasting
Savin, Ivan; Winker, Peter - 2012
Several approaches for subset recovery and improved forecasting accuracy have been proposed and studied. One way is to apply a regularization strategy and solve the model selection task as a continuous optimization problem. One of the most popular approaches in this research field is given by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009630302
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Tricks for improving non-homogeneous regression for probabilistic precipitation forecasts : perfect predictions, heavy tails, and link functions
Gebetsberger, Manuel; Messner, Jakob W.; Mayr, Georg. J.; … - 2016
Raw ensemble forecasts display large errors in predicting precipitation amounts and its forecast uncertainty, especially in mountainous regions where local e.ects are often not captured. Therefore, statistical post-processing is typically applied to obtain automatically corrected weather...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011542308
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Evaluating the forecasting performance of GARCH models using White´s Reality Check
Souza, Leonardo; Veiga, Alvaro; Medeiros, Marcelo C. - 2002
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011807281
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Assessing multivariate predictors of financial market movements : a latent factor framework for ordinal data
Huber, Philippe; Scaillet, Olivier; Victoria-Feser, … - 2008
Much of the trading activity in Equity markets is directed to brokerage houses. In exchange they provide so-called quot;soft dollarsquot; which basically are amounts spent in quot;researchquot; for identifying profitable trading opportunities. Soft dollars represent about USD 1 out of every USD...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003966616
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Asymmetries in conditional mean and variance : modelling stock returns by asMA-asQGARCH
Brännäs, Kurt; Gooijer, Jan G. de - 2000
The asymmetric moving average model (asMA) is extended to allow forasymmetric quadratic conditional heteroskedasticity (asQGARCH). Theasymmetric parametrization of the conditional variance encompassesthe quadratic GARCH model of Sentana (1995). We introduce a framework fortesting asymmetries in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303289
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Score driven exponentially weighted moving averages and value-at-risk forecasting
Lucas, André; Zhang, Xin - 2015
A simple methodology is presented for modeling time variation in volatilities and other higher-order moments using a recursive updating scheme similar to the familiar RiskMetricsTM approach. We update parameters using the score of the forecasting distribution. This allows the parameter dynamics...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011332948
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Forecasting the risk of speculative assets by means of copula distributions
Beckers, Benjamin; Herwartz, Helmut; Seidel, Moritz - 2013
The GARCH(1,1) model and its extensions have become a standard econometric tool for modeling volatility dynamics of financial returns and port-folio risk. In this paper, we propose an adjustment of GARCH implied conditional value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasts that exploits the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009723920
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Score driven exponentially weighted moving average and value-at-risk forecasting
Lucas, André; Zhang, Xin - 2014
We present a simple new methodology to allow for time-variation in volatilities using a recursive updating scheme similar to the familiar RiskMetrics approach. It exploits the link between exponentially weighted moving average and integrated dynamics of score driven time varying parameter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010384110
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Bayesian forecasts combination to improve the Romanian inflation predictions based on econometric models
Bratu, Mihaela - In: UTMS journal of economics / University of Tourism and … 5 (2014) 2, pp. 131-140
There are many types of econometric models used in predicting the inflation rate, but in this study we used a Bayesian … compared to other types of econometric models like VAR, Bayesian VAR, simultaneous equations model, dynamic model, log …-linear model. The Bayesian combinations that used experts' predictions as priors, when the shrinkage parameter tends to infinite …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010439151