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Phillips curves in the euro area
Moretti, Laura; Onorante, Luca; Saber, Shayan Zakipour - 2019
We perform a robust estimation of the Phillips curve in the euro area using a battery of 630 theory-driven models. We extend the existing literature by adding model specifications, taking into account the uncertainty in the measurement of variables and testing for potential non-linearities and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012030232
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Dem Konjunkturzyklus auf der Spur: zur Prognose konjunktureller Wendepunkte in Deutschland
Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Klär, Erik - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 76 (2007) 4, pp. 8-20
econometric decomposition into trend and cycle components. Advantages and problems of both approaches are addressed. Subsequently … Ermittlung auf Grundlage vor-, gleich- und nachlaufender Zeitreihen gesamtwirtschaftlicher Variablen sowie die Zerlegung in Trend …The article provides a short overview of approaches to business cycle dating - methods based on the observation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377809
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ifo Konjunkturampel revisited
Nierhaus, Wolfgang; Abberger, Klaus - In: ifo Schnelldienst 68 (2015) 05, pp. 27-32
Mit einem Markov-Switching-Modell können die monatlichen Veränderungen des ifo Geschäftsklimas in Wahrscheinlichkeiten für die beiden konjunkturellen Regime »Expansion« bzw. «Kontraktion« umgesetzt werden. Diese Wahrscheinlichkeiten – abgebildet in der ifo Konjunkturampel – liefern...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011693789
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A factor analysis for the Spanish economy
Cuevas, Ángel; Quilis, Enrique M. - In: SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 3 (2012) 3, pp. 311-338
We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317084
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MICA-BBVA: A factor model of economic and financial indicators for short-term GDP forecasting
Camacho, Máximo; Doménech, Rafael - In: SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 3 (2012) 4, pp. 475-497
. We find that the common factor reflects the behavior of the Spanish business cycle well.We also show that financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317087
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A factor analysis for the Spanish economy
Cuevas, Ángel; Quilis, Enrique M. - In: SERIEs : Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 3 (2012) 3, pp. 311-338
We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618787
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A novel ex-ante leading indicator for the EU industrial production
Donadelli, Michael; Paradiso, Antonio; Riedel, Max - 2015
We build a novel leading indicator (LI) for the EU industrial production (IP). Differently from previous studies, the technique developed in this paper is able to produce an ex-ante LI that is immune to "overlapping information drawbacks". In addition, the set of variables composing the LI...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434806
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Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany?
Fritsche, Ulrich; Kouzine, Vladimir - 2002
help predicting turning points of the business cycle. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437017
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The multistep Beveridge-Nelson decomposition
Proietti, Tommaso - 2009
The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition defines the trend component in terms of the eventual forecast function, as the value … illustrate that the multistep Beveridge-Nelson trend is more efficient than the standard one in the presence of model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011523928
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A quasi real-time leading indicator for the EU industrial production
Donadelli, Michael; Paradiso, Antonio; Riedel, Max - 2016
We build a quasi real-time leading indicator (LI) for the EU industrial production (IP). Differently from previous studies, the technique developed in this paper gives rise to an ex-ante LI that is immune to "overlapping information drawbacks". In addition, the set of variables composing the LI...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011539862