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This paper develops methods for the production and evaluation of censored density forecasts. Censored density forecasts quantify forecast risks in a middle region of the density covering a specified probability, and ignore the magnitude but not the frequency of outlying observations. We propose...
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scoring rule to a censored distribution, acknowledging that censoring emerges as a natural localization device due to its …, inflation and climate data consistently emphasize the superior power properties of censoring. …
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