Showing 1 - 10 of 38
Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion in the context of modeling and identification of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014164119
It is a common understanding that bankruptcy is not a sudden occurrence for any organizations. Macro and micro economic studies have suggested numerous influential factors, which have substantial evidence toward firm's performance (Bekeris, 2012) and survivability (Nehrebecka & Dzik, 2013). With...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905006
Momentum and Reversion have always been seen as independent of each other and never as a composite. This study explains how the two behaviors are not only connected but also get transformed into each other. This dynamics drives not only stock market systems but all natural systems. One reason...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971731
Can textual analysis improve statistical prediction of risky geopolitical events? North Korea has been the most important source of geopolitical risk for South Korea due to the former's unpredictable and secretive military actions against the latter. We find that the tone of English language...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013005977
Nearly all nontrivial real-world systems are nonlinear dynamical systems. Chaos describes certain nonlinear dynamical systems that have a very sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Chaotic systems are always deterministic and may be very simple, yet they produce completely unpredictable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014034828
The persistent nature of equity volatility is investigated by means of a multi-factor stochastic volatility model with time varying parameters. The parameters are estimated by means of a sequential matching procedure which adopts as auxiliary model a time-varying generalization of the HAR model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010402299
This paper employs an applied econometric study concerning forecasting spot prices in bulk shipping in both markets of tankers and bulk carriers in a disaggregated level. This research is essential, as spot market is one of the most volatile markets and there is a great uncertainty about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010486463
We extend the work done in our “Redux” paper from Oct 2011 to find a weighted composite U.S coincident economic index (CEI) that includes non-zero weightings from all 50 states and when used in a standard Probit model, produces a perfect correlation (R2 of 1) to NBER recession dating. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118636
Wilfried Despagne describes a Web-based forecasting support system, “Horizons,” that was designed for a French subsidiary of a European temperature-controlled-transport group. The major challenge was the adaptation of the system to more than 70 different transportation hubs, requiring a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120364
The world's data is growing more than 40% annually. Coupled with exponentially growing computing horsepower, this provides us with unprecedented basis for “learning” useful things from the data through statistical induction without material human intervention and acting on them. Philosophers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104692