In this paper, we examine the predictive ability of automatic and expert-rated media sentiment indicators for German inflation. We find that sentiment indicators are competitive in providing inflation forecasts against a large set of common macroeconomic and financial predictors. Sophisticated...

Expectations form the basis of economic decisions of market participants in an uncertain world. Sentiment indicators reflect those expectations and thus have a proven track record for predicting economic variables. However, respondents of surveys perceive the world to a large extent with the...

In an uncertain world, decisions by market participants are based on expectations. Thus, sentiment indicators reflecting expectations are proven at predicting economic variables. However, survey respondents largely perceive the world through media reports. Typically, crude media information,...

After a turbulent summer, marked by a weak second and a likely stronger third quarter, the German economy should return to an average pace of growth and end up with a growth rate of 0.9 percent in 2019. Despite the more subdued pace, capacity utilization remains high; employment growth is...

The slowdown in the global economy and the uncertainties caused by Brexit have affected the export-oriented German economy, which is expected to grow by only 0.5 percent this year. However, the German economy has not slid into a crisis due to marked fiscal policy stimuli and favorable...

By lifting lockdown measures as coronavirus case numbers are rising and the vaccine rollout is proceeding slowly, the German economy is being sent on a stop-go course. Re-opening measures will probably be followed by renewed closures, at least regionally, in order to keep the spread of COVID-19...

The coronavirus pandemic caused a global market crash in the first half of 2020. Following a massive slump of around four percent in the first quarter, global GDP decreased in the second by five percent. Lower rates of new infections, together with far-reaching monetary and fiscal policy...

The German economy has bottomed out, but its recovery is going to be long and arduous. Nevertheless, following the almost two-digit slump in economic output in the second quarter of 2020, recovery is likely to be accompanied by above-average rates. However, it is assumed that a second wave will...

Although the economic boom in Germany is over, a recession is not looming. The economy is still expected to grow by 1.0 percent this year despite its recent weaker performance. Consumption remains a mainstay of the economy; the average annual increase in the number of employees is likely to be...