Forecasting the stock returns in the emerging markets is challenging due to their peculiar characteristics. These markets exhibit linear as well as nonlinear features and Conventional forecasting methods partially succeed in dealing with the nonlinear nature of stock returns. Contrarily,...

The use of fundamentalist traders in the stock market models is problematic since fundamental values in the real world are unknown. Yet, in the literature to date, fundamentalists are often required to replicate key stylized facts. The authors present an agent-based model of the stock market in...

This article introduces a very flexible framework for causal and predictive market views and stress-testing. The framework elegantly combines Bayesian networks (BNs) and Entropy Pooling (EP). In the new framework, BNs are used to generate a finite set of joint causal views / stress-tests for the...

Recent survey evidence suggests that investors form beliefs about future stock returns by predominantly extrapolating their own experience: They overweight returns they have personally experienced while underweighting returns from earlier years and consequently expect high (low) stock market...

We solve a dynamic general equilibrium model with generalized disappointment aversion preferences and continuous state endowment dynamics. We apply the framework to the term structure of interest rates and show that the model generates an upward sloping term structure of nominal interest rates,...

We propose an integrated model of the joint dynamics of FX rates and asset prices for the pricing of FX derivatives, including Quanto products; the model is based on a multivariate construction for Levy processes which proves to be analytically tractable. The approach allows for simultaneous...