framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. The output gap is also an important variable in itself, as a … value added in predicting inflation. The multivariate measures of the output gap have by far the best predictive power. This … predicting inflation. As uncertainties are particularly pronounced at the end of the calculation periods, assessment of pressures …

This paper considers a sticky price model with a cash-in-advance constraint where agents forecast inflation rates with …. While average output and inflation result the same as under rational expectations, higher moments differ substantially …: output and inflation show persistence, inflation responds sluggishly to nominal disturbances, and the dynamic correlations of …

This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery … the slowdown and later the weak pace of the recovery – errors made by many other forecasters. At the same time, inflation …

predictor of core inflation than other measures …

We use Bayesian additive regression trees to reexamine the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts for Germany. To …-term growth and longer-term inflation forecasts. We cannot reject weak efficiency of short-term growth and inflation forecasts. We …

In this paper we build forecasts for Chilean year-on-year inflation using simple time-series models augmented with … different measures of international inflation. Broadly speaking, we construct two families of international inflation factors …. The first family is built using year-on-year inflation of 18 Latin American (LA) countries (excluding Chile). The second …

2006. It turns out that real-time estimates of the output gap are characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, much … higher than that resulting from model and estimation uncertainty only. In particular, the evidence indicates that both the … magnitude and the sign of the real-time estimates of the euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is mostly due …

inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use the output gap. The Phillips curve, which relates inflation to … real activity, is regarded as the maintained theory of inflation. Models of inflation without the output gap include the … paper examines ten different models of inflation and estimates sixty-seven different specifications, some of which …