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Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth : Analysis and Forecasts Using VAR/VEC Approach for Greece with Capital Formation
Georgantopoulos, Andreas G. - 2019
This paper tests for the existence and direction of causality between electricity consumption and real gross domestic product for Greece. The study examines a trivariate system with capital formation for the period 1980-2010. Robust empirical results indicate that all variables are integrated of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905486
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Renewable Energy Consumption and Generation Forecast in Indonesia
S, Suwarno - 2023
Currently, almost all economic activities require energy and it is a natural energy source that can be utilized as much as possible by the community for prosperity and sustainable development. The potential for renewable energy in Indonesia is very large and its utilization has not been...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014345047
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Is the price cap for gas useful? : evidence from European countries
Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rossini, Luca - 2023
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many countries have pledged to end or restrict their oil and gas imports to curtail Moscow's revenues and hinder its war effort. Thus, the European ministers agreed to trigger a cap on the gas price. To detect the importance of the price cap for gas, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014390297
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Forecasting Natural Gas Prices Using Highly Flexible Time-Varying Parameter Models
Gao, Shen - 2020
The growing disintegration between the natural gas and oil prices, together with shale revolution and market financialization, lead to continued fundamental changes in the natural gas markets. To capture these structural changes, this paper considers a wide set of highly flexible time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838597
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Bayesian Nonparametric Forecast Pooling
Jin, Xin - 2020
This paper introduces a new approach to forecast pooling methods based on a nonparametric prior for the weight vector combining predictive densities. The first approach places a Dirichlet process prior on the weight vector and generalizes the static linear pool. The second approach uses a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828453
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Spillover dynamics across price inflation and selected agricultural commodity prices
Balcilar, Mehmet; Bekun, Festus Victor - In: Journal of economic structures : JES; the official … 9 (2020) 2, pp. 1-17
This article contributes to the existing empirical literature by examining the spillovers across price inflation and agricultural commodity prices for the case of Nigeria. To achieve this objective, we employ the Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28(1):57-66, 2012) spillover index....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012256021
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Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil
Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021
We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier approaches that have been applied to oil price forecasting, by allowing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012544443
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Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries
Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. - 2012
There is a long tradition of using oil prices to forecast U.S. real GDP. It has been suggested that the predictive … relationship between the price of oil and one-quarter ahead U.S. real GDP is nonlinear in that (1) oil price increases matter only … price of oil is not helpful for out-of-sample forecasting; more robust and more accurate real GDP forecasts are obtained …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014167514
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Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries
Kilian, Lutz - 2012
There is a long tradition of using oil prices to forecast U.S. real GDP. It has been suggested that the predictive … relationship between the price of oil and one-quarter ahead U.S. real GDP is nonlinear in that (1) oil price increases matter only … price of oil is not helpful for out-of-sample forecasting; more robust and more accurate real GDP forecasts are obtained …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100207
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The Illusion of Oil Return Predictability : The Choice of Data Matters!
Conlon, Thomas; Cotter, John; Eyiah-Donkor, Emmanuel - 2021
Previous studies document statistically significant evidence of crude oil return predictability by several forecasting variables. We suggest that this evidence is misleading and follows from the common use of within-month averages of daily oil prices in calculating returns used in predictive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227125