The illiquidity of long-maturity options has made it difficult to study the term structures of option spanning portfolios. This paper proposes a new estimation and inference framework for these option-implied term structures that addresses long-maturity illiquidity. By building a sieve estimator...

This paper calibrates a class of jump-diffusion long-run risks (LRR) models to quantify how well they can jointly explain the equity risk premium and the variance risk premium in the U.S. financial markets, and whether they can generate realistic dynamics of riskneutral and realized...

We provide a decomposition of nominal yields into real yields, expectations of future inflation and inflation risk premiums when real bonds or inflation swaps are unavailable or unreliable due to their relative illiquidity. We combine nominal yields with surveys of inflation forecasts within a...

This paper investigates whether realized and implied volatilities of individual stocks can predict the cross-sectional variation in expected returns. Although the levels of volatilities from the physical and risk-neutral distributions cannot predict future returns, there is a significant...

The predictability of the equity risk premium is a central and controversial issue in finance. The Risk Premium Factor model is a recent and novel approach to forecasting the equity risk premium and the equity market's level and P/E. This article aims to overcome the main limitation of, and...

In this paper we examine the pricing of volatility risk using SPX corridor implied volatility. We decompose model-free total implied volatility into various components using different segments of the cross section of out-of-the money put and call option prices. We find that only model-free...

We estimate an implied value premium (IVP) using the implied cost of capital methodology. The implied value premium is the difference between the implied costs of capital of value stocks and growth stocks and is a direct estimate of the difference in expected returns between value stocks and...

This paper studies the time-series predictability of currency carry trades, constructed by selecting currencies to be bought or sold against the U.S. dollar, based on forward discounts. Changes in a commodity index, currency volatility and, to a lesser extent, a measure of liquidity predict...

This paper studies the out-of-sample predictability of the monthly market as well as size, value, and momentum premiums. We use a sample from each the US and the Swiss stock market between 1989 and 2007. Our Swiss sample provides an important new perspective as the repeated evaluation of the...

In this paper we address three main objections of behavioral finance to the theory of rational finance, considered as “anomalies” the theory of rational finance cannot explain: (i) Predictability of asset returns; (ii) The Equity Premium; (iii) The Volatility Puzzle. We offer resolutions of...