We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. To do this, we exploit archives of the model code, coefficients, baseline databases and stochastic shock sets stored after each FOMC meeting from the model’s...

In this paper we have assessed an influence of the NYSE Stock Exchange indexes (DJIA and NASDAQ) and European Stock indexes (DAX and FTSE) on the Warsaw Stock Exchange index WIG within a framework of a GARCH model. By applying a procedure of checking predictive quality of econometric models as...

Future market risk has always been a critical question in decision support processes. FORESIM is a simulation technique that models shipping markets (developed recently). In this paper we present the application of this technique in order to obtain useful information regarding future values of...

The increase in urbanisation and the use of vehicles in recent decades has also led to increased road accidents. The causes of road accidents can be various, including human error, weather conditions or even inadequate road infrastructure. Knowing the causes and areas of road accidents can help...

We solve a dynamic equilibrium model with generalized disappointment aversion preferences and continuous state endowment dynamics. We apply the framework to the term structure of interest rates and show that the model generates an upward sloping term structure of nominal interest rates, a...

This paper surveys deep learning algorithms, IoT cyber security and risk models, and established mathematical formulas to identify the best approach for developing a dynamic and self-adapting system for predictive cyber risk analytics supported with Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning...

Data driven companies effectively use regression machine learning methods for making predictions in many sectors. Cloud-based Azure Machine Learning Studio (MLS) has a potential of expediting machine learning experiments by offering a convenient and powerful integrated development environment....

This work builds upon the findings of the joint research undertaken by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) to create a system capable of generating economic forecasts for EAEU member states, subject to any applicable country-specific social components....

This paper proposes a predictive maintenance policy using modified failure mode effect and criticality analysis (Mod-FMECA) technique. FMECA is used to identify failure modes, reasons, effects and criticality of the system (machine/plant) but in Mod-FMECA in addition to the analysis carried for...

In this paper we address the issue of assessing and communicating the joint probabilities implied by density forecasts from multivariate time series models. We focus our attention in three areas. First, we investigate a new method of producing fan charts that better communicates the uncertainty...