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A Twitter-Based Prediction Market : Social Network Approach
Qiu, Liangfei; Rui, Huaxia; Whinston, Andrew B. - 2012
Information aggregation mechanisms are designed explicitly for collecting and aggregating dispersed information. An excellent example of the use of this "wisdom of crowds" is a prediction market. The purpose of our Twitter-based prediction market is to suggest that carefully designed market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014040950
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Nichtkoordinierte Effekte horizontaler Zusammenschlüsse : wirtschaftstheoretische Grundlagen und Prognose durch Simulationsmodelle
Schwalbe, Ulrich - In: Recht und Wettbewerb : Festschrift für Rainer Bechtold …, (pp. 465-481). 2006
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544122
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Information Exchange in Prediction Markets : How Social Networks Promote Forecast Efficiency
Qiu, Liangfei; Rui, Huaxia; Whinston, Andrew B. - 2012
This paper studies the effects of information exchange and social networks on the performance of prediction markets with endogenous information acquisition. We provide a game-theoretic framework to resolve the question: Can social networks and information exchange promote the forecast efficiency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014040948
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Statistical Prediction of the Outcome of a Noncooperative Game
Wolpert, David; Bono, James - 2009
Conventionally, game theory predicts that the joint mixed strategy of players in a noncooperative game will satisfy … strategies not satisfying it are assigned probability zero. As an alternative, we recast the prediction problem of game theory as … theory, on specifying a set of "equilibrium" mixed strategies, with a new focus, on specifying a probability density over all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014216189
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A Forecast Combination Approach to Equity Factor Timing
Fraikin, Michael - 2020
We investigate the benefits of forecast combination for timing equity factors based on predictive regressions using macro predictors. Relative to standard predictive regression models, forecast combination reduces the noise of forecasts and hence improves their out-of-sample predictive accuracy....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839669
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Nowcasting business cycle turning points with stock networks and machine learning
Azqueta-Gavaldon, Andres; Hirschbühl, Dominik; … - 2020
We propose a granular framework that makes use of advanced statistical methods to approximate developments in economy-wide expected corporate earnings. In particular, we evaluate the dynamic network structure of stock returns in the United States as a proxy for the transmission of shocks through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012316961
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Dynamic network formation with foresighted agents
Song, Yangbo; Schaar, Mihaela van der - In: International journal of game theory : official journal … 49 (2020) 2, pp. 345-384
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012591581
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An axiomatic characterization of wagering mechanisms
Lambert, Nicolas; Langford, John; Vaughan, Jennifer Wortman - In: Journal of economic theory 156 (2015), pp. 389-416
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011528149
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Aggregation and Manipulation in Prediction Markets : Effects of Trading Mechanism and Information Distribution
Jian, Lian - 2011
We conduct laboratory experiments on variants of market scoring rule prediction markets, under different information distribution patterns, in order to evaluate the efficiency and speed of information aggregation, as well as test recent theoretical results on manipulative behavior by traders. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122191
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Predicting and Understanding Initial Play
Fudenberg, Drew - 2019
We use machine learning to uncover regularities in the initial play of matrix games. We first train a prediction algorithm on data from past experiments. Examining the games where our algorithm predicts correctly, but existing economic models don't, leads us to add a parameter to the best...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900561