This study examines the sources of uncertainty in predicting government tax revenues in Israel. In the first stage, we estimate a model based on several real and financial macroeconomic variables and identify a significant, stable and highly accurate relation between these variables and tax...

In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions and false predictions of the elasticities linking the tax base to its corresponding tax type. Across six tax types and the overall tax sum for Germany, we find a heterogeneous...

This study examines the sources of uncertainty in predicting government tax revenues in Israel. In the first stage, we estimate a model based on several real and financial macroeconomic variables and identify a significant, stable and highly accurate relation between these variables and tax...