Predictions of whether newly unemployed individuals will become long-term unemployed are important for the planning and policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same...

We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of RE6. Second, their caseworkers revealed whether they...

We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re‑employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of RE6. Second, their caseworkers revealed whether they...

Public programs often use statistical profiling to assess the risk that applicants will become long-term dependent on the program. The literature uses linear probability models and (Cox) proportional hazard models to predict duration outcomes. These either focus on one threshold duration or...

Dynamic multi-factor regression models make it possible to take into account the dynamics of the proportions of the resulting indicator of socio-economic security and indicators in the retrospective period. The defects of such a model include the complexity of selecting indicators and...

The method of exponential smoothing is widely used in the forecasting of financial and economic characteristics in different sectors of the economy, departments, etc. In the construction of a forecast model by exponential smoothing time series of characteristics of socio–economic security is...

We examine whether financial analysts understand the effect of unionization on firm earnings in the U.S. by examining a large panel dataset with firm-level unionization, adoptions of right-to-work (RTW) laws, and union certification elections. We find that forecast errors for unionized firms in...

We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard...