We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant...

This article discusses election forecasting in the Caribbean through the reflective lens of model-based election forecasting in Jamaica between 2015 and 2020 to chart the progress made and to increase public understanding of the issues. Poll-based election forecasting is the dominant modality...

This paper provides a comprehensive early warning system (EWS) that balances the classical signaling approach with the best-realized machine learning (ML) model for predicting fiscal stress episodes. Using accumulated local effects (ALE), we compute a set of thresholds for the most informative...