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modeling approaches. The SCPMs are recorded during a fixed pre-decision phase and are derived from tracking subjects' eye … lottery payoff characteristics when investigating the role of emotions and cognitive bias in repeated decision …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012427354
We investigate various statistical methods for forecasting risky choices and identify important decision predictors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011964372
Abstract A nonparametric method for comparing multiple forecast models is developed and implemented. The hypothesis of Optimal Predictive Ability generalizes the Superior Predictive Ability hypothesis from a single given loss function to an entire class of loss functions. Distinction is drawn...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012851326
In this paper, we compare two fundamentally different judgmental demand forecasting approaches used to estimate demand and their corresponding demand distributions. In the first approach, parameters are obtained from a linear regression and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on team...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991799
We develop a forecasting method for the manufacturer and online seller of a product collection that changes periodically and radically. The firm, an industry leader in technology and quality, has experienced double-digit annual sales growth. In seeking to minimize supply-demand mismatch costs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014127366
improves or worsens predictions, our work cautions decision makers and uncovers paths toward reducing the occurrence of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079853
Accurate forecasts of incoming calls are crucial to optimal staffing decisions in call centers. This paper evaluates a wide range of models and forecast combination techniques by means of statistical and economic criteria. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014043503
planning or decision making, then the preferences, opportunities and constraints of the decision maker will all enter into the … of early work in the area of forecasting and decision theory, this chapter formally examines the manner in which the … features of an agent's decision problem combine to generate an appropriate decision-based loss function for that agent's use in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023704
A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An extension of application of the hypothesis to the field of forecasting is considered in the article. The concept of inevitability of unforeseen events is a part of the hypothesis of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057407
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011858753