the program. The literature uses linear probability models and (Cox) proportional hazard models to predict duration … outcomes. These either focus on one threshold duration or impose proportionality. In this paper we propose a nonparametric … work from unemployment insu rance, we do not find that the weighting method outperforms Cox survivor function predictions. …

unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced … unemployment flows are useful in forecasting the unemployment rate. We find that any approach that considers unemployment inflow …. Its usefulness is amplified at specific points in the business cycle when the unemployment rate is away from the longer …

monetary policy. It covers several major macro-economic quantities, including unemployment rate, GDP, and weekly payrolls in … natural rate of unemployment and GDP growth comes out of the model naturally. An optimization framework is proposed to … first-order analytic solution is derived. We find that FED's interest rate policy has leaned heavily on the unemployment …

predict unemployment in Spain. We include a new predictor for Spanish unemployment based on internet information provided by … queries and unemployment. Besides that, the inclusion of internet activity enhances model's prediction performance …

successfully utilized for macroeconomic predictions. Specifically, we study unemployment rates and their interconnection with job …-related searches. We show that Google searches enhance nowcasting models of unemployment rates for the Czech Republic and Hungary …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country fixed effects are added to panel … estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries - Austria; Belgium … predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months in advance based on individuals' fears of unemployment, their perceptions …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected … just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals …

policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of … re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were …

the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of … nach Eintritt in die Arbeitslosigkeit. Erstens wurden Arbeitslose kurz nach Beginn der Arbeitslosigkeit nach ihrer …

the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of …