Density forecasts of euro area inflation are a fundamental input for a medium-term oriented central bank, such as the … euro area (headline and core) inflation and a large set of determinants, is competitive with state-of-the-art linear … ECB point inflation forecasts, displaying similar deviations from "linearity". Given that the ECB modelling toolbox is …

With the concept of trend inflation now widely understood as to be important as a measure of the public's perception of … the inflation goal of the central bank and important to the accuracy of longer-term inflation forecasts, this paper uses … Bayesian methods to assess alternative models of trend inflation. Reflecting models common in reduced-form inflation modeling …