Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected … just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals …

a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition. Although the unemployment rate clearly contains important cyclical information … about the output gap. Instead, we show that the alternative U-2 unemployment rate (job losers as a percentage of the labor …

state-level initial unemployment insurance claims, changes in the unemployment rate, and changes in private employment. The …