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Does wage rigidity make firms riskier? : evidence from long-horizon return predictability
Favilukis, Jack; Lin, Xiaoji - 2012
sticky, then wage growth should negatively forecast future stock returns because falling wages are associated with even … level data. Furthermore, this relation is stronger in industries and U.S. states with higher wage rigidity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009697776
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Lessons for forecasting unemployment in the United States : use flow rates, mind the trend
Meyer, Brent; Tasci, Murat - 2015
This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced-form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484066
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Lessons for Forecasting Unemployment in the United States : Use Flow Rates, Mind the Trend
Meyer, Brent - 2015
This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches – the more reduced-form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025364
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Professional Forecasters and the Real-time Forecasting Performance of an Estimated New Keynesian Model for the Euro Area
Smets, Frank - 2013
This paper analyses the real-time forecasting performance of the New Keynesian DSGE model of Galí, Smets, and Wouters (2012) estimated on euro area data. It investigates to what extent forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by professional forecasters improve the forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078530
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Forecasting unemployment in Finland : a flow approach
Lindblad, Annika; Gäddnäs, Niklas - 2024
In this paper we evaluate whether the accuracy of Finnish unemployment rate forecasts can be improved by utilising the information in the flows into and out of unemployment. We compare and contrast different methodologies for constructing the flows. Our results indicate that Bayesian vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014574000
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Forecasting Unemployment Rates with International Factors
Pincheira, Pablo M. - 2020
In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises. Our main results indicate that the predictive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845239
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Nowcasting employment in the euro area
Bańbura, Marta; Belousova, Irina; Bodnár, Katalin; … - 2023
Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014315194
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Nowcasting Employment in the Euro Area
Banbura, Marta; Belousova, Irina; Bodnár, Katalin; … - 2023
Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014354741
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Lessons for Forecasting Unemployment in the U.S : Use Flow Rates, Mind the Trend
Meyer, Brent - 2015
This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that leverage unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches — the more reduced-form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027931
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Updating great expectations : the effect of peer salary information on own-earnings forecasts
Jones, Sam; Santos, Ricardo - 2020
the impact of a wage information intervention. We sent participants differentiated messages about the average earnings of … elasticity of own-wage expectations to this news of around 7 per cent in the short term and 16 per cent over the long term, which … compares to a 22 per cent elasticity in response to unanticipated actual wage offers. We further find evidence of heterogeneous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012301814