-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for … expansions have, if anything, a small systematic forecast error for large forecast horizons. When we link information about the …

We investigate the predictive power of several leading indicators in order to forecast industrial production in Germany … indicators. We show that the best set of predictors, within and between categories, changes over time and depends on the forecast …

various types of legal and shadow economic activities and their interrelations. The model is used to forecast the whole (legal … Ukrainian authorities take an active position in the implementation of the developed forecast for the economic development of …