results of such tests. In some cases, with appropriate knowledge of the corruption mechanism, the true values of the …

The ability to predict corruption is crucial to policy. Using rich micro-data from Brazil, we show that multiple … machine learning models display high levels of performance in predicting municipality-level corruption in public spending. We … power. We find that measures of private sector activity, financial development, and human capital are the strongest …

We contend that corruption must be detected as soon as possible so that corrective and preventive measures may be taken … public corruption based on economic and political factors. Unlike previous research, which is based on the perception of … corruption, we use data on actual cases of corruption. We apply the model to Spanish provinces in which actual cases of …