This paper studies the performance of alternative prediction models for conflict. The analysis contrasts the … correlates of conflict to minimize the prediction loss function, and (2) an algorithm that chooses a set of thresholds for the … same variables, together with the number of breaches of thresholds that constitute a prediction of conflict, that minimize …

This paper studies the performance of alternative prediction models for conflict. The analysis contrasts the … correlates of conflict to minimize the prediction loss function, and (2) an algorithm that chooses a set of thresholds for the … same variables, together with the number of breaches of thresholds that constitute a prediction of conflict, that minimize …

challenge for economists. The International Monetary Fund proposes within its periodic World Economic Outlook report a measure …-frequency information. Pseudo real-time results show that this approach provides reliable and timely nowcasts of the world GDP annual growth …