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This paper provides a coherent method for scenario aggregation addressing model uncertainty. It is based on divergence … the definition of five fundamental criteria that serve as a basis for our method. Standard risk measures, such as value-at-risk … and expected shortfall, are shown to be robust with respect to minimum divergence scenario aggregation. Various examples …
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Despite well-known shortcomings as a risk measure, Value-at-Risk (VaR) is still the industry and regulatory standard … for the calculation of risk capital in banking and insurance. This paper is concerned with the numerical estimation of the …
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A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An extension of application of the hypothesis to the field of forecasting is considered in the article. The concept of inevitability of unforeseen events is a part of the hypothesis of...
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