Fairfield and Yohn (2001) show that disaggregating change in return on assets into change in asset turnover and change in profit margin helps in predicting future profitability. For oil and gas firms, we disaggregate return on assets in the same manner and also use data envelopment analysis...

We evaluate the performance of financial analysts versus naïve models in making long-term earnings forecasts. Long-term earnings forecasts are generally defined as third-, fourth-, and fifth- year earnings forecasts. We find that for the fourth and fifth years, analysts' forecasts are no more...